Source: World Bank.
From the perspective of export value, international trade has experienced substantial growth since the 1970s, accelerating during the 2000s. This is largely attributable to China’s accession to the WTO agreements in late 2001 and the subsequent expansion of Chinese exports. The growth in China’s share of global merchandise exports closely matches the growth in global exports, indicating that China has been a core driver. This is also associated with the growth in maritime shipping, as manufacturers in East Asia (Japan, South Korea, and China) relied on long-distance shipping networks.
The expectation is that a phase of maturity in global trade will eventually be reached, mostly associated with a slowdown and possibly a reversal in outsourcing and offshore. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 was the first contemporary challenge to the global economy, with a significant decline of nearly 25% in global merchandise trade over one year. Another readjustment occurred in 2015-16 with a slowdown in the Chinese economy and a decline in commodity prices, such as petroleum, on global markets. The COVID-19 pandemic was another challenge that led to a substantial decline in 2020, followed by a surge in 2021-22. Although the share of the United States, Germany, and Japan has steadily declined, their exports have increased in absolute numbers.
This trend should also affect ownership of commercial fleets, but pronounced differences are observed. It is reasonable to expect that a nation’s share of global exports should be similar to its share of the global fleet. China accounted for approximately 16% of global tonnage, which is comparable to its share of global exports. This share is 12% for Japan, which corresponds to its global share at the peak of its influence in the 1980s and 1990s, implying it made decisions to maintain its prominence in shipping to support national interests, including the offshoring of its manufacturing capabilities. Germany accounts for 3% of global tonnage but 8% of global containership capacity, consistent with its commercial importance as an exporter. The United States is an outlier, accounting for 2.5% of the global commercial fleet and 8% of global exports; in the 1970s, this share was on par with its exports at 12%, but it has since declined rapidly. India is an emerging exporter, accounting for 1.8% of global exports and approximately 1% of the global commercial fleet, implying a lag between its export and shipping capabilities. When countries intervene in the shipping market, they typically do so through state enterprises, as in China and India.